What does Lockheed Martin's teaming with Patria for the Marine Personnel Carrier Contest tell us?
Lockheed wants to be a player in armored vehicles.
Lockheed sat on the sidelines during the MRAP craze. I think that they rightfully thought that it was a dead end when it comes to armored vehicle development. Plus MRAPs are really truck based. I think that because of that fact MRAPs will never become fully developed as combat vehicles. 8x8 are another case entirely. If vehicle manufacturers are ever able to crack the code and get MRAP type protection in a real combat vehicle then they'll onto something special.
Lockheed read the requirements.
Lockheed read the requirements and sensed the changing winds of procurement when it selected Patria to team with. Looking at the requirements plainly, the Marine Corps wanted a vehicle that would provide inland mobility, could cross rivers with ease and in a pinch could swim from ship to shore. Money would be a factor but so would performance.
The Patria AMV is combat proven.
Lockheed somewhat got slick with the pick of the Patria AMV. It is well known by any and all who follow armored vehicles. Polish units have used the AMV (Wolverine in Polish service) to great effect. Its reputation is well known inside the Marine Corps and many Marines have had a chance to get a close up look at the vehicle down range.
The Problem.
Lockheed Martin has a problem though. The procurement winds are changing again and they might not be in a position to take advantage of them. Quite simply, BAE has them by the short hairs. Why? Because Paul McNeary reported that BAE is working on not only the AAV Upgrade but also an Amphibious Combat Vehicle based on the AAV hull form AND a new hull. Additionally they're developing an MPC that looks to have outstanding sea keeping qualities.
The Rub.
The MPC if it comes down to a proven combat vehicle that provides outstanding cross country performance WITH little risk, then the Lockheed Martin HAVOC wins. If it becomes a price shoot out, and if programs merge then its going to be a rough road for not only the HAVOC but for all the contenders. Margins. Return on investment. Domestic content. All these issues could make the vehicle so expensive that its not worth building. Remember, all the companies involved except for General Dynamics will have to establish a production facility (BAE might not have to ... I'm not up to speed on whats going on with their plant in Sealy, TX), they'll have to work out getting suppliers on board etc. This could easily be a case where the maintenance contract is worth more than the manufacturing.
Conclusion.
I like the Havoc. Marines that have gotten a chance to run the vehicle like it. To be honest though I seriously worry that the Marine Corps is on the verge of terminating the MPC program and going with a savagely upgraded AAV renamed ACV much like they did with the change from LVTP-7 to AAV.